Half a year ago I was jumping for joy, because at the point I had to decide wether or not to go to Iceland, ticketfares made me decide to 'just' book that damn ticket, because if not I wouldnt go anyway at all.
And I might have been jumped so hard, that I woke up Mother Nature. Just at that moment I finally could look forward to a trip with a bit more freedom and the so desired visit to Myvatn area with all its volcano activity, steaming grounds, hotpots, colors, mud and strange lavarock formations. And horses of course. But it was just thát volcano activity I asked for. Not the one Iceland deals with now.
Not much later, just after I returned from an Icelandic themed stay in Germany, Bárðarbunga decided to wake up at August 16th of August live on the webcams lave poured out of the rift that opened. It closed just as quickly, to be followed one week later by a more powerfull rift eruption. All nice and dandy, this was a tourist safe eruption, not causing too much harm at that stage. Up until today (September 15th) this eruption is ongoing, but this week started to cause problems with toxic levels of gasses. But it is not the only thing happening in the area of Bárðarbunga. A more, much more dangerous situation is looming deep under the ice. And the closer it gets to my departure to Iceland, the more likely this doom will happen anywhere in the near future. In a time scale from today until the end of this year. That is defenitely not the volcano activity I asked for....
If Bárðarbunga itself is going to collapse, which is almost certain it will happen, a big part of the 2009m high volcanos caldera will be demolished. Now that is not even the biggest threat. But Bárðarbunga is covered with a hundreds of meters thick icecap of Vatnajökull. And its caldera is filled with up to 800 meter ice. For over 2 weeks the caldera of Bárðarbunga is lowering making it easier for magma to surface. It even is possible eruption already started and the caldera is already filling with meltwater. It takes time to notice that because the ice takes away the visibilty to the caldera, but every day +5 magnitude earth quakes shake Bárðarbunga. Either be gas explosions or the caldera lowering. The ice in the caldera has lowered already 30 meter at a rate of 50cm per day now.
Before it collapses, all this ice or at least the most of it will melt into the caldera, before it destroys the craters wall and come rushing down as a huge jökullhaup which is basicly in nature more destructive than a tsunami. it follows the river Jökulsá á Fjöllum, which is already Europes most powerfull river without jökulhaup. It will demolish anything on its pathway, carrying house size boulders with the ease of a pingpongball, only the many mountain ridges to give temporary relief. But on its way are several powerplants who provide power to most of north, northeast and east Iceland. And there are several farms. And I am going to north Iceland. Not exactly the target area, I'd be rather safe for jökullhaups except for my short time in Akureyri which is also not directly target but is much closer to the danger and therefore has an increased risk to be affected. My main worry is during the horse round up. What if it happens while we are there deep in the mountains where you can only go on horseback... I wouldnt want to fail on my 'duty' to get the horses to the owners, I really would feel terrible if they only bring the humans home. Even if I think they already herded the horses to a safer place like they did elsewhere.
Another treat is the ash, icevolcanos always always always produce ashfall and it will easily reach 20km in the sky. High enoug to lame airtraffic once more, however Bárðarbunga is further away from Keflavik and generally used air corridors. But still a lot of nordic airtraffic will be affected if the eruption holds long enough. But a lot of lava already flowed from the Holuhraun eruption, the pressure in the volcano need to build up again and Holuhraun fissure first to be closed. But it is closing and the geologists know there is more magma flowing to the eruption than that actually erupts. It has to go somewhere.
So with all this doom in reach, I really look different to my supposed to be holiday. Chances are bigger that I will just have a good time with a bit of sleepless nights, but still... preparing takes odd forms of taking emergency supplies, enough thermo clothes, battery operated radio, masks, be sure to be registered with several emergency organisations in both Iceland and Netherlands in case a natural hazard will occur. Make sure my insurance is ok, and also however it sounds morbid, I will not pass by the small chance that I might not return to Netherlands ever again. Going to Iceland now, simply increases this chance, no one can deny it. But I of course hope it wont happen that nature turns against me. But an eruption of Bárðarbunga is no fun... all feared Katla would be first, but Bárðarbunga gives the Icelandic people a great way to 'train' for Katlas next eruption which will most likely claim lives as people live so close to that volcano, and if she erupts without warning, are trapped on her volcano bay.
Yup, you may understand me that I am really starting a bit to get nerves. But I will go. Like I say, I am quite a distance away from the 'fun'. And unless Bárðarbunga decides different, I take that plane. I always have the freedom to stay in the more safe west. I'd skip the Akureyri part if needed.
Still happy to go to Iceland. Volcanos are also why I feel connected to this country, it wouldnt be the same without. I think I should be like the Icelanders, not to get too worried. But it is not easy :-)
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